Despite big daily polling movement by the Media knocking Hillary Clinton, she has a gigantic and growing lead in another key metric with a strong track record of influencing the nomination process: Endorsements from elected Democrats.
A 56 percent majority of Democratic governors, senators and U.S. House members have endorsed Clinton for president, according to data tracked by FiveThirtyEight.
No other candidate has a significant share of support from elected Democrats. Joe Biden has 1.2 percent support for a potential run, while 0.4 percent (a.k.a. one person) goes to former Maryland governor Martin O’Malley. Sanders have no endorsements at all.
Clinton’s endorsement advantage represents a major barricade against Sanders’s run as well as a potential bid by Biden. Endorsements are a key indicator of candidates’ standing in the “invisible primary” — the period before any caucuses and primaries in which candidates compete for the endorsement of party leaders, interest groups and activists. Endorsements provide a window into how the invisible primary is playing out, and most importantly, they have proven more predictive than early polls in how candidates eventually fare among voters in caucuses and primaries.
So how much does Clinton’s endorsement lead actually matter? “I believe her endorsement lead is the best possible insulation against challenges to her front-runner status,” said Cohen, an assistant professor at James Madison University. “When it comes to amassing delegates in the various state primaries and caucuses, those endorsements will provide her with the campaign infrastructure to turn out votes that should neutralize the efforts of her opponents.”
Turning back to the endorsement data collected by FiveThirtyEight; Three components of the endorsement race demonstrate Clinton’s strength. What’s fascinating about the data above is not just Clinton’s advantage – it’s big – but that she already has reached an absolute majority of endorsements among all potential endorsements. It’s September — five months before any actual voting. Even if Biden or Sanders rounded up every uncommitted Democratic senator, House member and governor, they would max out at 44 percent. Among elected Democrats who have endorsed anyone in the race so far, 97 percent have backed Clinton.
Secondly, Sanders hasn’t gained a single endorsement. His campaign seems to acknowledge this as a weakness; The Post’s John Wagner reported last month that Sanders plans to make a concerted pitch for his candidacy to Democratic leaders. Sanders is of course running as an anti-establishment candidate, and this metric’s focus on support from elected leaders doesn’t play to his strengths. Nonetheless, a lack of any establishment support signals the party — as in, basically power within it — is not rooting for his name on the ticket.
Thirdly, Clinton’s advantage is substantially larger than at this point in 2007, when Barack Obama was able to surge after winning the Iowa caucuses. Clinton held roughly one-third of all endorsement “points” tallied by FiveThirtyEight (giving governors and senators greater weight), while today she holds an outright majority. Her endorsement lead in 2008 was more vulnerable precisely because she had not locked up the public support of many Democrats by late 2007. This time around, most Democrats have already backed her. [Washington Post FiveThirtyEight]
Twitter @sheriffali
Open The Link For Full Article:
sheriffali.wordpress.com 
You must be logged in to post a comment.